Track record · closed signal

IAMGold Corporation (IAG) — closed signal from May 18, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 16, 2026 — +4.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

IAG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$16.80 – $17.70Entry zone — fair-value band

$17.47Published — price the day we called it

$20.96Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$18.92Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$18.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 42% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+4.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+8.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$18.30

last close inside the window, ended August 16, 2026

Peak price

$18.92

peak on June 17, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 18, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$20.96

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$16.80 – $17.70

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$17.47

published May 18, 2026

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

IAMGold offers a way to benefit if gold prices rise, and a recent share buyback plus a new strategy leader give a clear near-term reason for value to improve. Valuation and earnings trends look supportive for a miner, but market interest has faded and insiders are not acting supportive, so the opportunity is appealing but less evenly supported than some peers; gold prices remain the biggest swing factor.

Primary drivers

Exposure to gold provides a defensive boost during cycles
Share buyback highlights returning cash to owners
New leadership may improve strategy execution
Price looks reasonable versus recent earnings trends

How it played out

IAG: rose 8.3%, but missed the target

On May 18, Lyra published a short-term thesis for IAG at $17.47. It expected 20% growth to $20.96. The thesis pointed to exposure to gold, the share buyback, new strategy leadership, and a reasonable price relative to recent earnings trends. It also noted fading market interest and unsupportive insider activity.

IAG rose to a peak of $18.92 on June 17, a gain of 8.3%. It never reached the $20.96 target. The shares ended the window at $18.30 on August 16, still above the publication price but below the peak. The thesis partially played out, but the expected gain did not.

What happened during the window

On June 17, IAMGold increased its revolving credit facility from $650 million to $850 million and extended its maturity to June 17, 2030. On August 6, the company reported second-quarter production of 188,100 ounces of gold and net earnings of $230.5 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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