Track record · closed signal

Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from May 18, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 16, 2026 — +15.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ONB price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$22.48 – $23.46Entry zone — fair-value band

$23.46Published — price the day we called it

$26.58Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$27.36Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$27.17Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 59 days.

At window close

+15.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+16.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$27.17

last close inside the window, ended August 16, 2026

Peak price

$27.36

peak on August 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 18, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$26.58

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$22.48 – $23.46

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$23.46

published May 18, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Old National looks like a cleaner choice among regional banks because its stock price is not expensive, its earnings are more steady, and the company recently announced a dividend that gives some clarity on returns. If the regional-bank group calms down, ONB could benefit, but risks around loan quality, deposit costs and low trading volume keep confidence deliberately limited.

Primary drivers

Stock price looks relatively fair after recent weakness
Dividend announcement gives clearer returns to shareholders
Steady earnings make results more predictable
High short interest could increase upside if sentiment improves

How it played out

ONB: target reached in 59 days

Lyra published ONB at $23.46 with 14% expected growth and a $26.58 target. The thesis pointed to a relatively fair valuation after weakness, steady earnings, a recent dividend announcement, and high short interest. It also cited loan quality, deposit costs, and low trading volume as risks.

ONB reached the target in 59 days. It peaked at $27.36 on August 4, a 16.6% gain, then ended the window at $27.17 on August 16. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, Old National reported second-quarter net income applicable to common shares of $249.4 million and diluted earnings of $0.65 per share. On August 12, 2026, its board declared a quarterly common-stock dividend of $0.145 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ONB signals