Track record · closed signal

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from May 18, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

HMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$16.59 Published $20.24 Target $19.44 Window close $20.22 Peak
$15.80 – $16.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$16.59Published — price the day we called it
$20.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$20.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$19.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$20.22
peak on August 12, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+21.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$19.44
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
May 18, 2026 – August 16, 2026

The thesis — published May 18, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$20.24
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$15.80 – $16.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$16.59
published May 18, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Harmony Gold combines exposure to rising gold prices with cheaper valuation and signs of earnings improvement, making it a relatively defensive miner for the next few months. The company could act as ballast if stocks get volatile, while a recent broker upgrade and steady price action add support. Operating risk in South Africa and commodity swings mean the view is cautious.

Primary drivers

  • Gold exposure can soften the impact of stock market swings
  • A recent broker upgrade helps the case for higher valuation
  • Relatively low valuation plus improving profits could lift the stock
  • Price action looks steady rather than already stretched

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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