Track record · closed signal

Mastercard Inc (MA) — closed signal from May 18, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$496.39 Published $575.81 Target $569.29 Window close $583.71 Peak
$485.00 – $505.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$496.39Published — price the day we called it
$575.81Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$583.71Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$569.29Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 73 days.

Peak price
$583.71
peak on August 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+17.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$569.29
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
73
Window
May 18, 2026 – August 16, 2026

The thesis — published May 18, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$575.81
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$485.00 – $505.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$496.39
published May 18, 2026
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Mastercard runs a global payments network that tends to be steadier than banks in the near term because it earns fees on transactions rather than lending money. Payment volumes and profits have been reliable, and a recent card partnership highlights the network's usefulness. A recent price pullback makes the reward more appealing, but weaker market momentum and sensitivity to consumer spending suggest cautious conviction.

Primary drivers

  • Global payments network earns steady fees and is less tied to lending cycles
  • New card partnership highlights the network's ongoing value
  • Reliable earnings make Mastercard more defensive among financials
  • Recent price drop gives a clearer risk versus reward than banks

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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