Track record · closed signal

Mastercard Inc (MA) — closed signal from May 16, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 14, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$494.20 Published $573.27 Target $569.29 Window close $583.71 Peak
$485.00 – $500.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$494.20Published — price the day we called it
$573.27Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$583.71Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$569.29Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 75 days.

Peak price
$583.71
peak on August 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+18.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$569.29
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
75
Window
May 16, 2026 – August 14, 2026

The thesis — published May 16, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$573.27
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$485.00 – $500.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$494.20
published May 16, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Mastercard runs a large global payments network with steady profits and margins. Recent price weakness looks like a pause rather than a collapse. A big investor moved out, which can pressure the stock near term, but the company's broad transaction base and strong margins make the tradeoff between upside and downside look reasonable in a choppy market.

Primary drivers

  • Large global network supports steady profits
  • Pullback makes risk and reward more balanced
  • Big investor selling is a short-term flow headwind
  • High margins help guard earnings in rough markets

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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