Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from May 15, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 13, 2026 — +34.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$133.33 Published $154.66 Target $179.01 Window close $179.91 Peak
$126.00 – $134.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$133.33Published — price the day we called it
$154.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$179.91Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$179.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 14 days.

At window close
+34.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+34.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$179.01
last close inside the window, ended August 13, 2026
Peak price
$179.91
peak on August 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
14

The thesis — published May 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$154.66
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$126.00 – $134.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$133.33
published May 15, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir is a leading AI software company with clear signs of demand: announcements about SurfOS deployments and large work already contracted make future sales easier to see. The company has a solid balance sheet and good execution, but the stock price is high versus expected gains and short-term selling and insider moves make this a cautious, tactical idea for the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • SurfOS rollout shows AI moving from tests into real operations
  • Large contracted work gives clearer visibility into future sales
  • Healthy balance sheet lowers the chance of needing external cash
  • High valuation makes the setup more tactical than defensive

How it played out

PLTR: target reached in 14 days

On May 15, Lyra published a short-term thesis for 16% growth from $133.33. The thesis pointed to SurfOS deployments, large contracted work, a healthy balance sheet, and solid execution. It also treated the high valuation, short-term selling, and insider moves as reasons for caution.

PLTR reached the $154.66 target in 14 days. It later rose to a $179.91 peak on August 13, a 34.9% gain, and ended the window at $179.01. The thesis played out and exceeded its target.

What happened during the window

On August 3, Palantir reported second-quarter revenue of $1.935 billion, up 93% year over year. It also reported 220 deals worth at least $1 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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