Track record · closed signal

Trade Desk Inc (TTD) — closed signal from May 15, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 13, 2026 — -29.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TTD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$19.50 – $21.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$20.70Published — price the day we called it

$23.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$23.57Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$14.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 99% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-29.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$14.56

last close inside the window, ended August 13, 2026

Peak price

$23.57

peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 15, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$23.60

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$19.50 – $21.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$20.70

published May 15, 2026

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Trade Desk looks like a rebound play after a setback. The company still generates strong free cash flow and advertisers are increasing joint programs, which supports revenue. However, recent earnings missed expectations, guidance was cut, and competition is intense. The situation may improve once guidance and demand show clearer stability.

Primary drivers

Strong free cash flow helps absorb the earnings reset
Growing joint business plans show continued advertiser demand
Near-term risk from stronger competition in ad tech
Recent heavy selling creates room for a rebound if sentiment improves

How it played out

TTD: the rebound nearly reached the target, then reversed

Lyra published TTD at $20.70 as a rebound thesis with expected growth of 14%. The thesis pointed to strong free cash flow, growing joint business plans with advertisers, and room for a rebound after heavy selling. It also identified stronger competition, an earnings miss, and reduced guidance as risks.

The price rose to $23.57 on June 1, a peak gain of 13.9%. That stayed just below the $23.60 target, so the target was never reached. TTD then fell and ended the window at $14.56 on August 13. The rebound partially played out, but the full thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On June 1, 2026, The Trade Desk announced Nate Olmstead as chief financial officer, effective July 9. On August 6, 2026, the company reported its second-quarter results and said the quarter had not met its own standard.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TTD signals