Track record · closed signal

Trade Desk Inc (TTD) — closed signal from May 15, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TTD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$20.70 Published $23.60 Target $14.56 Window close $23.57 Peak
$19.50 – $21.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$20.70Published — price the day we called it
$23.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$23.57Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$23.57
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+13.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$14.56
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
May 15, 2026 – August 13, 2026

The thesis — published May 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$23.60
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$19.50 – $21.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$20.70
published May 15, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Trade Desk looks like a rebound play after a setback. The company still generates strong free cash flow and advertisers are increasing joint programs, which supports revenue. However, recent earnings missed expectations, guidance was cut, and competition is intense. The situation may improve once guidance and demand show clearer stability.

Primary drivers

  • Strong free cash flow helps absorb the earnings reset
  • Growing joint business plans show continued advertiser demand
  • Near-term risk from stronger competition in ad tech
  • Recent heavy selling creates room for a rebound if sentiment improves

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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