Track record · closed signal

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) — closed signal from May 15, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 13, 2026 — +20.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$91.22 Published $106.42 Target $109.74 Window close $109.88 Peak
$88.48 – $92.46Entry zone — fair-value band
$91.22Published — price the day we called it
$106.42Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$109.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$109.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 82 days.

At window close
+20.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+20.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$109.74
last close inside the window, ended August 13, 2026
Peak price
$109.88
peak on August 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
82

The thesis — published May 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$106.42
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$88.48 – $92.46
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$91.22
published May 15, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab has clear short-term reasons to do better: recent guidance shows higher expected revenue, client assets and trading hit records, and the firm added direct crypto trading to make more fees. The company's strong balance sheet helps handle market swings. Still, insider selling and sensitivity of interest income to rates limit confidence for the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • New guidance points to higher future revenue than expected
  • Record client assets and trading boost momentum
  • Adding direct crypto trading widens fee income sources
  • Big cash and deposits help absorb market swings

How it played out

SCHW: target reached in 82 days

On May 15, Lyra published SCHW at $91.22 and expected 17% growth, with a $106.42 target. The thesis pointed to higher revenue guidance, record client assets and trading, direct crypto trading as another fee source, and cash and deposits that could absorb market swings.

SCHW reached the target in 82 days. It peaked at $109.88 on August 13, a 20.5% gain, and ended the window at $109.74. The published thesis played out within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On July 21, 2026, Charles Schwab reported second-quarter net revenue of $7.1 billion and earnings per share of $1.54.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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