Track record · closed signal

Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from May 14, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 12, 2026 — +14.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ONB price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$23.59 Published $25.79 Target $27.08 Window close $27.36 Peak
$22.48 – $23.71Entry zone — fair-value band
$23.59Published — price the day we called it
$25.79Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$27.36Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$27.08Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 42 days.

At window close
+14.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+16%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$27.08
last close inside the window, ended August 12, 2026
Peak price
$27.36
peak on August 4, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
42

The thesis — published May 14, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$25.79
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$22.48 – $23.71
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$23.59
published May 14, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Old National shows steady profits and a fair price, but recent updates mainly confirm continuity (dividend and brand deal) rather than spark big change. The share price looks short-term beaten down versus its recent trend, yet sensitivity to interest rates and heavier short positions make the near-term outlook cautious rather than optimistic.

Primary drivers

  • Reliable profit delivery supports confidence in the bank
  • Regular dividend news shows steady capital returns
  • Valuation appears reasonable versus rate-driven volatility
  • Regional deposit mix spreads risk across Midwestern markets

How it played out

ONB: target reached in 42 days

Lyra published a cautious short-term thesis that expected a 10% rise from 23.59 to 25.79. The thesis pointed to reliable profit delivery, regular dividend news, reasonable valuation amid rate-driven volatility, and a regional deposit mix across Midwestern markets. It also noted heavier short positions and interest-rate sensitivity.

The target was reached in 42 days. The price later peaked at 27.36 on August 4, a 16% gain that was above the target. It ended the window at 27.08, also above the target. The published thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, Old National reported second-quarter net income applicable to common shares of $249.4 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.65. It also announced an expanded executive leadership structure that day.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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