Track record · closed signal

SM Energy Co (SM) — closed signal from May 14, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 12, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$30.99 Published $34.78 Target $32.42 Window close $35.63 Peak
$28.61 – $30.58Entry zone — fair-value band
$30.99Published — price the day we called it
$34.78Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$35.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$32.42Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 6 days.

Peak price
$35.63
peak on May 20, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$32.42
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
6
Window
May 14, 2026 – August 12, 2026

The thesis — published May 14, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$34.78
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$28.61 – $30.58
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$30.99
published May 14, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

SM looks like a value energy stock that has picked up momentum recently because production rose and earnings news improved. The stock climbed over several months and is not deeply discounted now, so the most appealing short-term chance is if the price calms down in a sideways pattern rather than continuing to run higher immediately.

Primary drivers

  • Higher production is lifting sales and revenue momentum
  • Analysts have nudged estimates upward, supporting near-term profit views
  • Valuation looks attractive compared with many growth names
  • Price action shows clearer strength than many beaten-down peers

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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