Track record · closed signal

SM Energy Co (SM) — closed signal from May 14, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 12, 2026 — +4.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$30.99 Published $34.78 Target $32.42 Window close $35.63 Peak
$28.61 – $30.58Entry zone — fair-value band
$30.99Published — price the day we called it
$34.78Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$35.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$32.42Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 6 days.

At window close
+4.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+15%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$32.42
last close inside the window, ended August 12, 2026
Peak price
$35.63
peak on May 20, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
6

The thesis — published May 14, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$34.78
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$28.61 – $30.58
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$30.99
published May 14, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

SM looks like a value energy stock that has picked up momentum recently because production rose and earnings news improved. The stock climbed over several months and is not deeply discounted now, so the most appealing short-term chance is if the price calms down in a sideways pattern rather than continuing to run higher immediately.

Primary drivers

  • Higher production is lifting sales and revenue momentum
  • Analysts have nudged estimates upward, supporting near-term profit views
  • Valuation looks attractive compared with many growth names
  • Price action shows clearer strength than many beaten-down peers

How it played out

SM: target reached in 6 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 13% growth from $30.99. It expected the price to settle into a sideways pattern before rising. The thesis pointed to higher production, improved earnings news, upward estimate revisions, an attractive valuation, and stronger price action than beaten-down peers.

The stock reached the $34.78 target in 6 days. It peaked at $35.63 on May 20, a 15% gain. By the end of the window on August 12, it was at $32.42. The expected gain played out within the window, although the stock later gave back part of the rise.

What happened during the window

On August 5, 2026, SM Energy reported second-quarter results and raised its second-half production outlook while maintaining its full-year capital guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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