Track record · closed signal

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) — closed signal from May 14, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 12, 2026 — +16.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

KTOS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$54.60 Published $63.34 Target $63.82 Window close $66.83 Peak
$50.00 – $55.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$54.60Published — price the day we called it
$63.34Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$66.83Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$63.82Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 14 days.

At window close
+16.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+22.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$63.82
last close inside the window, ended August 12, 2026
Peak price
$66.83
peak on May 28, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
14

The thesis — published May 14, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$63.34
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$50.00 – $55.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$54.60
published May 14, 2026
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

KTOS is a higher-risk defense company with recent strong results and higher revenue guidance that supports its growth story in defense and autonomous systems. The company's solid cash position helps, but its stock price looks expensive, insiders selling is a concern, and short-term price momentum is weak, so more stability is needed before confidence rises.

Primary drivers

  • Growing demand for defense and autonomous systems supports sales growth
  • Higher revenue guidance gives a nearer-term reason for the stock to move
  • A healthy balance sheet reduces the risk of cash-related problems for a small-cap
  • High valuation and insider selling make the investment riskier near-term

How it played out

KTOS: target reached in 14 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for a 16% rise from $54.60 toward $63.34. The thesis pointed to demand for defense and autonomous systems, higher revenue guidance, and a healthy balance sheet. It also noted the high valuation, insider selling, and weak short-term momentum as risks.

KTOS reached the $63.34 target in 14 days. It peaked at $66.83 on May 28, a 22.4% gain, then ended the window at $63.82. The target was reached and the closing price remained above it. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On August 4, 2026, Kratos reported second-quarter revenue of $458.8 million and organic growth of 19.1%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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