Track record · closed signal

Commerce Bancshares Inc (CBSH) — closed signal from May 14, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 12, 2026 — +18% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CBSH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$48.98 – $50.96Entry zone — fair-value band

$50.58Published — price the day we called it

$55.35Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$60.92Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$59.71Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 29 days.

At window close

+18%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+20.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$59.71

last close inside the window, ended August 12, 2026

Peak price

$60.92

peak on July 29, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 14, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$55.35

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$48.98 – $50.96

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$50.58

published May 14, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Commerce Bancshares is a watch candidate because the story is specific and bank-focused, not just tied to the whole sector. The Visa share exchange and shifting securities should free money to invest at higher yields, helping interest income. The company's steady profits and lower volatility help limit losses, but thin trading and neutral outside views keep conviction moderate.

Primary drivers

Visa share exchange creates a real gain that funds portfolio changes
Reinvesting securities proceeds can lift net interest income
Conservative bank profile helps limit downside risk in stress
Earnings stayed solid despite slower loan growth across the sector

How it played out

CBSH: target reached in 29 days

Lyra published CBSH at $50.58, expecting 10% growth and a $55.35 target. The thesis pointed to the Visa share exchange funding portfolio changes, reinvested securities proceeds lifting net interest income, a conservative bank profile, and solid earnings despite slower sector loan growth.

The target was reached in 29 days. CBSH later peaked at $60.92 on July 29, a 20.4% gain from publication. It ended the window at $59.71, still above the target. The published thesis played out, and the price exceeded the stated objective within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On June 29, Commerce Bank announced an agreement to acquire Nolan & Associates. On July 16, Commerce Bancshares reported second-quarter earnings of $1.10 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CBSH signals