Track record · closed signal

GE Vernova LLC (GEV) — closed signal from May 14, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 12, 2026 — -3.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GEV price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,074.26 Published $1,203.17 Target $1,039.90 Window close $1,195.94 Peak
$1,020.00 – $1,080.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,074.26Published — price the day we called it
$1,203.17Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,195.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,039.90Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 94% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-3.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+11.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$1,039.90
last close inside the window, ended August 12, 2026
Peak price
$1,195.94
peak on July 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 14, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,203.17
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,020.00 – $1,080.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,074.26
published May 14, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

GE Vernova sells turbines, grid gear and wind and electrification tech, so demand from utilities and AI-related power needs helps growth. The company raised forecasts and added orders for gas turbines, giving clearer revenue and profit visibility. The stock trades at a high price and price action is mixed, but deep orders and a solid balance sheet make a near-term constructive setup.

Primary drivers

  • Ongoing grid and electricity needs support steady industrial demand
  • Higher company forecasts make future results easier to see
  • A bigger gas-turbine order backlog gives clear revenue support
  • Strong balance sheet lowers the chance of execution turning into big risk

How it played out

GEV: rose 11.3% but missed the target

On May 14, Lyra published a short-term thesis for a 12% rise from 1074.26 toward 1203.17. The thesis pointed to utility demand, higher company forecasts, a larger gas-turbine order backlog, and a strong balance sheet as support for the setup.

Within the window, GEV reached 1195.94 on July 6, a peak gain of 11.3%. It stayed below the target and ended the window at 1039.90 on August 12. The price came close, then gave back the rise. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On July 22, GE Vernova reported second-quarter revenue of $11.1 billion and orders of $16.7 billion. It also raised its 2026 revenue and free cash flow guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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