Track record · closed signal

CoreCivic Inc (CXW) — closed signal from May 13, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 11, 2026 — +70.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CXW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$19.00 – $20.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$19.92Published — price the day we called it

$23.51Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$34.86Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$33.92Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 26 days.

At window close

+70.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+75%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$33.92

last close inside the window, ended August 11, 2026

Peak price

$34.86

peak on August 10, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 13, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$23.51

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$19.00 – $20.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$19.92

published May 13, 2026

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Recent company updates show strong quarterly results, more revenue from ICE-related contracts, and management raising profit guidance tied to growth efforts. The price is low enough to attract event-driven investors, but important risks include government policy changes, significant debt, and light trading. Short-term setup depends on guidance and contract news proving reliable.

Primary drivers

Recent results and guidance support credibility of growth
ICE contract demand is a near-term growth trigger
Higher profit guidance improves financial visibility
Government policy, debt, and thin trading are key risks

How it played out

CXW: target reached in 26 days

Lyra published CXW at $19.92 with an expected gain of 18%. The thesis pointed to recent quarterly results, rising revenue from ICE-related contracts, and higher profit guidance. It also identified government policy, debt, and light trading as key risks. The short-term case depended on guidance and contract news proving reliable.

The shares reached the $23.51 target in 26 days. They later peaked at $34.86 on August 10, a 75% gain within the window, and ended at $33.92 on August 11. The target was reached and the peak was well above it. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On August 5, CoreCivic reported second-quarter revenue of $684.9 million, up 27.3% from the prior-year quarter. On August 10, the company announced a $500 million accelerated share repurchase agreement.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CXW signals