Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from May 13, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 11, 2026 — -11.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$375.00 – $390.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$388.32Published — price the day we called it

$423.27Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$408.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$343.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 58% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-11.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$343.80

last close inside the window, ended August 11, 2026

Peak price

$408.61

peak on May 18, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 13, 2026

Predicted growth

+9%

over the measurement window

Target price

$423.27

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$375.00 – $390.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$388.32

published May 13, 2026

Confidence

67%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet is a steady company with strong advertising, cloud, and AI parts. Recent reports about possible orbital data-centers add a future option. The stock has already run up, so near-term gains look limited and a measured approach after small drops is sensible. Regulatory risk also keeps expectations cautious.

Primary drivers

Large search and cloud businesses give steady, defensive sales
AI work and related infrastructure could create new long-term needs
Reports about Google and SpaceX projects add optional future demand
Limited near-term upside means tempered expectations for gains

How it played out

GOOGL: rose 5.2%, but never reached the target

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 9% growth from a price of $388.32. The thesis pointed to steady search, advertising, and cloud sales, plus longer-term demand from artificial intelligence infrastructure and reported Google and SpaceX projects. It also noted limited near-term upside and regulatory risk.

GOOGL peaked at $408.61 on May 18, a gain of 5.2%. It stayed below the $423.27 target throughout the window. By August 11, it had fallen to $343.80. The expected gain never arrived, though the early rise moved partway toward it. The thesis only partially played out.

What happened during the window

On June 3, Alphabet gave investors an update on its businesses and infrastructure spending. On July 22, the company reported that second-quarter revenue grew 24% year over year, while Cloud revenue grew 82%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All GOOGL signals