Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from May 13, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,006.87 Published $1,127.69 Target $1,215.02 Window close $1,249.45 Peak
$960.00 – $1,010.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,006.87Published — price the day we called it
$1,127.69Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,249.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,215.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 15 days.

Peak price
$1,249.45
peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+24.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,215.02
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
15
Window
May 13, 2026 – August 11, 2026

The thesis — published May 13, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,127.69
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$960.00 – $1,010.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,006.87
published May 13, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly is a fast-growing drug company and new data showing people keep weight off after treatment supports big demand for its obesity medicine. The company posts strong results and leads in its drug areas, but the stock has run up a lot, so timing matters. It looks attractive on price pullbacks, though debt and current valuation reduce near-term upside.

Primary drivers

  • New weight-loss data makes Lilly's obesity drug story stronger
  • Consistent strong results justify a higher stock price
  • Diabetes and obesity drugs create a large growth runway
  • High recent gains mean entry should be selective

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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