Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from May 13, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 11, 2026 — +20.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$960.00 – $1,010.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$1,006.87Published — price the day we called it

$1,127.69Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,249.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$1,215.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 15 days.

At window close

+20.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+24.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$1,215.02

last close inside the window, ended August 11, 2026

Peak price

$1,249.45

peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 13, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,127.69

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$960.00 – $1,010.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$1,006.87

published May 13, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly is a fast-growing drug company and new data showing people keep weight off after treatment supports big demand for its obesity medicine. The company posts strong results and leads in its drug areas, but the stock has run up a lot, so timing matters. It looks attractive on price pullbacks, though debt and current valuation reduce near-term upside.

Primary drivers

New weight-loss data makes Lilly's obesity drug story stronger
Consistent strong results justify a higher stock price
Diabetes and obesity drugs create a large growth runway
High recent gains mean entry should be selective

How it played out

LLY: target reached in 15 days

Lyra published LLY at 1006.87, expecting 12% growth over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to new weight-loss data, continued demand for obesity medicine, consistent strong results, and a large growth runway in diabetes and obesity drugs. It also noted valuation, debt, and the need for selective timing.

The shares reached the 1127.69 target in 15 days. They later peaked at 1249.45 on 2026-07-07, a 24.1% gain from publication. LLY ended the window at 1215.02 on 2026-08-11, still above the target. The published thesis played out fully within the measurement window and the market exceeded its stated objective.

What happened during the window

On July 23, 2026, Lilly reported positive results from two Phase 3 obesity trials of retatrutide. On August 5, 2026, the company reported second-quarter revenue growth of 48% and raised its full-year revenue guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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