Track record · closed signal

Citigroup Inc. (C) — closed signal from May 13, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 11, 2026 — +9.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

C price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$119.78 – $124.73Entry zone — fair-value band

$124.25Published — price the day we called it

$140.93Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$147.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$135.77Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 33 days.

At window close

+9.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+18.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$135.77

last close inside the window, ended August 11, 2026

Peak price

$147.21

peak on June 18, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 13, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$140.93

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$119.78 – $124.73

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$124.25

published May 13, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

A value-oriented bank showing cleaner revenue and steadier earnings; its price and outlook don't require a big re-rating. Recent inflation and Treasury-market headlines make results more tied to interest-rate moves, which can help or hurt in the short term. Price sits near support, while negative momentum and a complex balance sheet limit confidence.

Primary drivers

Stronger earnings delivery could increase investor interest
Reasonable valuation versus peers supports upside potential
Interest-rate swings can boost activity but also raise risk
Complex balance sheet keeps conviction at a moderate level

How it played out

C: target reached in 33 days

Lyra published C at $124.25, with 14% expected growth and a $140.93 target. The thesis pointed to cleaner revenue, steadier earnings, stronger earnings delivery, and a reasonable valuation versus peers. It also cited interest-rate swings as both an opportunity and a risk, while the complex balance sheet kept confidence moderate.

The price reached $140.93 in 33 days and peaked at $147.21 on June 18, a peak gain of 18.5%. It finished the window at $135.77, below the target but above the published price. The thesis played out within the window.

What happened during the window

On June 24, Citigroup said its stress capital buffer remained 3.6% and announced a 12% quarterly dividend increase to $0.67. On July 14, the company released its second-quarter 2026 results.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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