Track record · closed signal

Mastercard Inc (MA) — closed signal from May 13, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 11, 2026 — +12.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$497.20 Published $586.70 Target $561.44 Window close $583.71 Peak
$485.00 – $505.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$497.20Published — price the day we called it
$586.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$583.71Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$561.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 97% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+12.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+17.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$561.44
last close inside the window, ended August 11, 2026
Peak price
$583.71
peak on August 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 13, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$586.70
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$485.00 – $505.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$497.20
published May 13, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Mastercard runs a large payments network that makes steady profits and consistently delivers earnings. The new Amazon business card highlights that big partners keep choosing its network. Payment volumes are expected to grow over time, but the stock is in a sideways pattern and is not cheap, so the short-term case is based on quality rather than fast price momentum.

Primary drivers

  • Amazon card news shows big partners still rely on the network
  • High-margin payments business keeps profits strong and predictable
  • Consistent earnings make the company look higher quality
  • Price is sensitive to valuation, so gains may need confirmation

How it played out

MA: rose 17.4% but missed the target

Lyra expected MA to rise 18% from its published price of $497.20 toward $586.70. The thesis pointed to Mastercard's profitable payments network, consistent earnings, and the Amazon business card as signs of business quality. It also warned that valuation could limit near-term gains.

The price reached $583.71 on August 3, for a peak gain of 17.4%. It stayed below the target and ended the window at $561.44 on August 11. The thesis partially played out. The expected gain was nearly reached, but the published target was not.

What happened during the window

On July 30, 2026, Mastercard published its second-quarter financial results.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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