Track record · closed signal

Mastercard Inc (MA) — closed signal from May 13, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$497.20 Published $586.70 Target $561.44 Window close $583.71 Peak
$485.00 – $505.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$497.20Published — price the day we called it
$586.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$583.71Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$561.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$583.71
peak on August 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+17.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$561.44
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
May 13, 2026 – August 11, 2026

The thesis — published May 13, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$586.70
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$485.00 – $505.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$497.20
published May 13, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Mastercard runs a large payments network that makes steady profits and consistently delivers earnings. The new Amazon business card highlights that big partners keep choosing its network. Payment volumes are expected to grow over time, but the stock is in a sideways pattern and is not cheap, so the short-term case is based on quality rather than fast price momentum.

Primary drivers

  • Amazon card news shows big partners still rely on the network
  • High-margin payments business keeps profits strong and predictable
  • Consistent earnings make the company look higher quality
  • Price is sensitive to valuation, so gains may need confirmation

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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