Track record · closed signal

Halozyme Therapeutics Inc (HALO) — closed signal from May 12, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 10, 2026 — +45.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

HALO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$66.00 – $70.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$70.47Published — price the day we called it

$82.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$104.77Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$102.62Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 73 days.

At window close

+45.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+48.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$102.62

last close inside the window, ended August 10, 2026

Peak price

$104.77

peak on August 10, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 12, 2026

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$82.44

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$66.00 – $70.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$70.47

published May 12, 2026

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Halozyme just reported strong results, repeated guidance, and announced a big share buyback while saying ENHANZE royalties should rise. That mix makes cash returns and sales visibility look better. The stock has already run up, with heavy short interest and overbought signals, so upside near-term may be limited until the price settles.

Primary drivers

Rising ENHANZE royalties make future sales more visible
Large buyback increases cash returned to shareholders
A recent quarterly beat shows improving business momentum
Healthy cash reduces risk from relying on royalties

How it played out

HALO: target reached in 73 days

On May 12, Lyra published HALO at $70.47 with expected growth of 17% and a target of $82.44. The thesis pointed to rising ENHANZE royalties, a large share buyback, a recent quarterly beat, and healthy cash. It also noted that the stock had already risen and near-term upside could be limited.

The price reached the target after 73 days. It later peaked at $104.77 on August 10, a gain of 48.7%, and ended the window at $102.62. The published thesis played out and the stock exceeded the target.

What happened during the window

On July 20, Halozyme announced a global collaboration and license agreement with Incyte involving its ENHANZE technology. On August 6, the company reported second-quarter revenue of $481 million, up 48% year over year, and raised its full-year financial guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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