Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from May 12, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 10, 2026 — -2.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$222.73 Published $258.37 Target $217.55 Window close $236.54 Peak
$208.00 – $218.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$222.73Published — price the day we called it
$258.37Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$217.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-2.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+6.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$217.55
last close inside the window, ended August 10, 2026
Peak price
$236.54
peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 12, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$258.37
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$208.00 – $218.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$222.73
published May 12, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is still the leading supplier of chips and systems used for AI work, and recent demand to rent GPUs shows companies keep building AI infrastructure. The business is very strong, but the share price has run up quickly and many investors are already positioned. Geopolitical news about China adds extra uncertainty, so the timing looks better after a clearer pullback.

Primary drivers

  • Company sets the industry standard for AI processing hardware
  • Renting GPUs shows businesses keep investing in AI infrastructure
  • Very high profit margins and a strong cash position
  • A price pullback would reduce crowded buying and improve entry

How it played out

NVDA: the 16% growth thesis missed its target

On May 12, Lyra expected 16% growth from a publication price of $222.73. The thesis pointed to NVIDIA's lead in processing hardware for artificial intelligence, continued spending on computing infrastructure, high profit margins, and a strong cash position. It also said a pullback would offer better timing.

The price peaked at $236.54 on May 14, a gain of 6.2%. It never reached the $258.37 target. By August 10, it had fallen to $217.55, below the publication price and within the stated entry zone. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On May 20, 2026, NVIDIA reported first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion and data center revenue of $75.2 billion. It also announced an additional $80.0 billion share repurchase authorization.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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