Track record · closed signal

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) — closed signal from May 12, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 10, 2026 — -2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ADC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$72.47 – $75.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$75.65Published — price the day we called it

$81.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$81.52Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$74.14Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 87% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$74.14

last close inside the window, ended August 10, 2026

Peak price

$81.52

peak on July 29, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 12, 2026

Predicted growth

+9%

over the measurement window

Target price

$81.60

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$72.47 – $75.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$75.65

published May 12, 2026

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Agree Realty is a conservative idea: steady income from long-term leased retail properties, plus insider buying and a dividend make it defensive. A new share-selling program can finance purchases but may dilute holders. Price momentum is weak; the stock sits near its recent trend. Upside is expected to be modest.

Primary drivers

Freestanding leased retail properties give steady rent and defensive income exposure
Insider buying signals confidence from company insiders in the business
New share program can supply cash to buy properties and grow externally
Issuing shares can dilute existing holders and limit near-term upside

How it played out

ADC: the thesis partially played out

Lyra published ADC as a conservative, short-term idea with 9% expected growth from 75.65. The thesis pointed to steady rent from long-term leased retail properties, insider buying, and a dividend. It also said the new share program could fund property purchases, while dilution and weak price momentum could limit near-term upside.

ADC rose to 81.52 on July 29, a 7.8% peak gain, but it stayed below the 81.60 target. The target was never reached. By August 10, the stock had fallen to 74.14, below its 75.65 publication price. The thesis partially played out because the expected modest upside nearly appeared, but the stated target was missed and the gain did not hold.

What happened during the window

On June 8, Agree Realty declared a monthly common dividend of $0.267 per share. On July 30, the company reported second-quarter investment activity of $502 million and raised its 2026 investment guidance to $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ADC signals