Track record · closed signal

Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) — closed signal from August 10, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 8, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

OBDC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.35 Published $14.10 Target $11.79 Window close $13.63 Peak
$12.35 – $12.70Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.35Published — price the day we called it
$14.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$13.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$11.79Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 17% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$13.63
peak on September 5, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$11.79
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 10, 2025 – November 8, 2025

The thesis — published August 10, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.10
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.35 – $12.70
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.35
published August 10, 2025
Confidence
88%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Blue Owl aims to pay steady income while the stock looks set for a short-term recovery. The company earned a 10.6% return in Q2, its 12th straight strong quarter, and management sees up to a 0.75% boost from fine-tuning. It also helped fund Meta's $29B AI build, showing strong deal access. With many investors upbeat and lots more people buying than usual, a rebound in the next 0-3 months looks reasonable.

Primary drivers

  • Strong returns for shareholders 12 quarters in a row, showing consistency
  • Helped arrange Meta's $29B AI build-out financing, proving deal strength
  • Many investors are optimistic, and the price looks ready for a near-term lift
  • A high dividend yield provides steady cash that can soften pullbacks

How it played out

OBDC: target was not reached

Lyra published OBDC on 2025-08-10 at 13.35 with an expected gain of 12%. The thesis looked for a short-term recovery toward 14.1. It pointed to 10.6% Q2 returns, 12 straight strong quarters, a possible 0.75% boost from fine-tuning, Meta's $29B artificial intelligence build financing, upbeat investors, unusual buying, and a high dividend yield.

Inside the window, OBDC rose only briefly. It peaked at 13.63 on 2025-09-05, a 2% gain, and stayed below the 14.1 target. By 2025-11-08, it ended at 11.79. The thesis partially played out early, but it missed the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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