Track record · closed signal

NextEra Energy Inc (NEE) — closed signal from May 11, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 9, 2026 — -9.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NEE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$91.16 – $93.62Entry zone — fair-value band

$93.85Published — price the day we called it

$98.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$95.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$84.65Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 22% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-9.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+1.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$84.65

last close inside the window, ended August 9, 2026

Peak price

$95.10

peak on May 11, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 11, 2026

Predicted growth

+6%

over the measurement window

Target price

$98.76

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$91.16 – $93.62

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$93.85

published May 11, 2026

Confidence

67%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NextEra is a steady utility with growing clean-energy projects and recent backing from a major bank, plus talk that AI could raise power demand. It is not expected to jump sharply: the company carries lots of debt, reacts to interest-rate moves, and has shown recent weak price momentum, so upside looks modest in the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

Big pipeline of clean-energy projects gives revenue visibility
AI-related power demand talk raises investor interest in utilities
A higher price target from Evercore adds credibility
Heavy debt and sensitivity to interest rates cap upside potential

How it played out

NEE: the 6% thesis missed its target

Lyra published a short-term case for 6% growth. The thesis pointed to a large clean-energy project pipeline, interest in utilities tied to artificial intelligence power demand, a higher price target from Evercore, and limits from heavy debt and sensitivity to interest rates. It expected modest upside rather than a sharp jump.

The shares peaked at $95.10 on May 11, a 1.3% gain. They never reached the $98.76 target. By August 9, the price had fallen to $84.65, below the $93.85 publication price. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On May 18, NextEra Energy announced an all-stock agreement to combine with Dominion Energy. On July 24, the company reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.407 billion, or $1.15 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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