Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from May 11, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 9, 2026 — +22.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$940.00 – $970.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$968.21Published — price the day we called it

$1,123.12Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,249.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$1,185.71Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 17 days.

At window close

+22.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+29%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$1,185.71

last close inside the window, ended August 9, 2026

Peak price

$1,249.45

peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 11, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,123.12

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$940.00 – $970.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$968.21

published May 11, 2026

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly looks attractive because strong demand for its GLP-1 drugs, a recent good earnings report, and management raising guidance all point to continued sales growth. Reports highlighting its obesity and metabolic research add to the growth story. Near-term risk is higher because the stock is already widely owned and trading thinly, so results must stay clean.

Primary drivers

High demand for GLP-1 drugs is driving sales growth
Raised guidance signals continued earnings momentum
Positive coverage highlights interest in obesity treatments
Heavy ownership and weak trading mean less room for error

How it played out

LLY: target reached in 17 days

Lyra published LLY at $968.21 with an expected gain of 16% and a target of $1,123.12. The thesis pointed to high demand for GLP-1 drugs, raised guidance, and interest in obesity treatments. It also warned that heavy ownership and weak trading left less room for error.

The shares reached the target in 17 days. They later peaked at $1,249.45 on July 7, a gain of 29%. LLY ended the window at $1,185.71, still above the target. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On June 7, Lilly reported weight-loss results from analyses of its oral GLP-1 treatment in women at different stages of menopause. On August 5, the company reported second-quarter revenue of $23.0 billion, up 48%, and raised its full-year revenue guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All LLY signals