Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from May 11, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$968.21 Published $1,123.12 Target $1,185.71 Window close $1,249.45 Peak
$940.00 – $970.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$968.21Published — price the day we called it
$1,123.12Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,249.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,185.71Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 17 days.

Peak price
$1,249.45
peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+29%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,185.71
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
17
Window
May 11, 2026 – August 9, 2026

The thesis — published May 11, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,123.12
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$940.00 – $970.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$968.21
published May 11, 2026
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly looks attractive because strong demand for its GLP-1 drugs, a recent good earnings report, and management raising guidance all point to continued sales growth. Reports highlighting its obesity and metabolic research add to the growth story. Near-term risk is higher because the stock is already widely owned and trading thinly, so results must stay clean.

Primary drivers

  • High demand for GLP-1 drugs is driving sales growth
  • Raised guidance signals continued earnings momentum
  • Positive coverage highlights interest in obesity treatments
  • Heavy ownership and weak trading mean less room for error

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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