Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from May 11, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 9, 2026 — +2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$219.51 Published $250.24 Target $223.96 Window close $236.54 Peak
$205.00 – $216.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$219.51Published — price the day we called it
$250.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$223.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$223.96
last close inside the window, ended August 9, 2026
Peak price
$236.54
peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 11, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$250.24
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$205.00 – $216.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$219.51
published May 11, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA leads in the computing and infrastructure that powers AI, and that demand is still the main story. After a big price run, the near-term trade looks tactical rather than a clear long-term entry. Momentum is positive, but high valuation and recent volatile price moves make a pullback more likely than a steady climb right now.

Primary drivers

  • Strong demand for AI computing and data-center gear
  • Cloud deal news strengthens the ecosystem and sales pipeline
  • A solid balance sheet helps the company handle market swings
  • High recent gains increase the chance of a short-term pullback

How it played out

NVDA: the target was not reached

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 14% growth from a price of $219.51. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence computing and data-center gear, cloud deals, a solid balance sheet, and positive momentum. It also warned that high valuation, recent gains, and volatile price moves raised the chance of a pullback.

NVDA rose to a peak of $236.54 on May 14, a gain of 7.8%. It stayed below the $250.24 target throughout the window. The stock ended at $223.96 on August 9. The thesis partially played out because the price rose, but the expected growth did not arrive.

What happened during the window

On May 20, NVIDIA reported first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year earlier, and data-center revenue of $75.2 billion, up 92%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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