Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from May 11, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 9, 2026 — +9.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.33 Published $14.95 Target $14.55 Window close $15.20 Peak
$12.81 – $13.30Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.33Published — price the day we called it
$14.95Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$15.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 66 days.

At window close
+9.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+14%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$14.55
last close inside the window, ended August 9, 2026
Peak price
$15.20
peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
66

The thesis — published May 11, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.95
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.81 – $13.30
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.33
published May 11, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National looks like a possible regional-bank rebound: deposits are sounding healthier, the bank is spending on tech to run more efficiently, earnings are steady, and insiders are buying shares. Trading activity hasn't clearly turned up, so credit issues and sensitivity to interest rates are the main short-term risks for the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Deposit updates suggest more stable funding for the bank
  • Technology spending could lower costs and lift profit margins
  • Insider buying aligns management with shareholders
  • Main risks are credit trends and sensitivity to interest rates

How it played out

VLY: target reached in 66 days

Lyra published VLY at $13.33 with expected growth of 13% and a thesis built around a possible regional-bank rebound. The thesis pointed to more stable deposits, technology spending that could lower costs and lift margins, and insider buying. It also identified credit trends and sensitivity to interest rates as risks.

During the window, VLY reached a peak of $15.20 on July 16, above the $14.95 target, for a peak gain of 14%. The target was reached in 66 days. VLY ended the window at $14.55 on August 9. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On July 23, Valley National reported second-quarter net income of $170.9 million, or $0.29 per diluted share. It also reported that deposits had increased to $54.1 billion by June 30.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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