Track record · closed signal

Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) — closed signal from May 11, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 9, 2026 — +0.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GILD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$129.29 – $133.24Entry zone — fair-value band

$132.64Published — price the day we called it

$148.90Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$140.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$133.21Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 46% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+0.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$133.21

last close inside the window, ended August 9, 2026

Peak price

$140.61

peak on July 17, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 11, 2026

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$148.90

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$129.29 – $133.24

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$132.64

published May 11, 2026

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Gilead looks like a defensive healthcare holding: it has plenty of cash, steady earnings, and recent buying pressure that keeps its short-term outlook balanced. The healthcare sector showed broadly stronger results and fewer regulatory surprises than feared. There is no new big company-specific event, so upside is steady but not dramatic.

Primary drivers

Big cash reserves help the stock handle downturns
Stronger sector earnings improve investor sentiment
Consistent earnings beats support a steady outlook
No big new company events to fuel faster gains

How it played out

GILD: rose 6%, but missed the target

Lyra published GILD at $132.64 with an expected gain of 13% and a $148.90 target. The thesis pointed to large cash reserves, stronger healthcare earnings, consistent earnings beats, and recent buying pressure. It also said there was no major company-specific event to drive a faster move, so the expected upside was measured.

The stock peaked at $140.61 on July 17, a 6% gain inside the window. It stayed below the $148.90 target and never reached it. By August 9, it ended at $133.21, above the $132.64 publication price. The thesis partially played out because the shares rose, but the expected 13% gain did not materialize.

What happened during the window

On May 22, Gilead announced FDA accelerated approval for Hepcludex. On August 4, the company reported second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up 10% from the prior year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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