Track record · closed signal

SM Energy Co (SM) — closed signal from May 9, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 7, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$29.24 Published $33.40 Target $28.88 Window close $35.63 Peak
$27.87 – $29.20Entry zone — fair-value band
$29.24Published — price the day we called it
$33.40Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$35.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$28.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 9 days.

Peak price
$35.63
peak on May 20, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+21.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$28.88
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
9
Window
May 9, 2026 – August 7, 2026

The thesis — published May 9, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$33.40
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$27.87 – $29.20
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$29.24
published May 9, 2026
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Q1 results came in ahead of expectations, management raised near-term production plans, and the company expanded the expected savings from a merger. The stock trades at a reasonable price and is near a known buying area, but high debt, sensitivity to oil and gas prices, and volatile contract hedging make this a tactical opportunity rather than a safe long-term holding.

Primary drivers

  • Quarterly results beat forecasts and backed up guidance
  • Raised production outlook gives clearer near-term revenue visibility
  • Bigger synergy target strengthens the merger-related growth story
  • High leverage and commodity swings keep the idea tactical

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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