Track record · closed signal

Bilibili Inc. (BILI) — closed signal from May 8, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 6, 2026 — -17.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BILI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$21.80 – $22.80Entry zone — fair-value band

$22.53Published — price the day we called it

$25.68Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$22.80Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$18.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 9% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-17.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+1.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$18.58

last close inside the window, ended August 6, 2026

Peak price

$22.80

peak on May 8, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 8, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$25.68

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$21.80 – $22.80

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$22.53

published May 8, 2026

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Recent news points to a stronger game lineup and cash generation that looks better than reported profit implied. This makes the stock driven by potential positive events rather than being clearly cheap. Policy shifts in China can quickly change market mood, and execution is inconsistent, but better game news and a short-term uptrend could lift the stock in the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

Improved game lineup makes future growth more visible
Stronger cash flow suggests earnings quality is better
Unique community platform helps retain and grow users
Short-term trend recovery could change investor sentiment

How it played out

BILI: the 14% growth thesis missed

Lyra published a short-term thesis at 22.53 and expected 14% growth toward 25.68. The thesis pointed to an improved game lineup, stronger cash flow, the community platform's user retention, and a recovering short-term price trend. It also identified policy shifts and inconsistent execution as risks.

BILI peaked at 22.80 on May 8, a gain of 1.2%. It never reached the target. By August 6, the price had fallen to 18.58, below both the publication price and entry zone. The published thesis did not play out within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On May 19, 2026, Bilibili reported first-quarter net revenue of RMB7.47 billion and net profit of RMB202.0 million. On July 14, 2026, the company said its BML2026 concert had concluded on July 12 and reached a peak livestream audience of 45 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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