Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from May 8, 2026
Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 6, 2026 — +8.3% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Came within reach: 98% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.
The thesis — published May 8, 2026
Valley National looks like a bank that could recover because deposits are growing, it's investing in technology and it just reported better-than-expected quarterly results. The stock still appears fairly priced, insiders are buying, and the dividend adds a defensive element. Near-term risks are credit and commercial property issues, so the 0-3 month outlook depends on steady funding costs and calmer investor appetite.
Primary drivers
- Growing deposits help keep funding steady
- Quarterly results beat expectations, showing execution
- Insider buying suggests confidence in the bank
- Valuation for regional banks still looks reasonable
How it played out
VLY: target reached by July 16
Lyra published VLY at $13.36 with a 0-3 month view and expected 14% growth toward $15.12. The thesis pointed to growing deposits, better-than-expected quarterly results, insider buying, and a reasonable regional-bank valuation. It also identified credit, commercial property, funding costs, and investor appetite as near-term risks.
VLY rose to $15.20 on July 16, a 13.7% peak gain, and moved above the $15.12 target during the window. It ended at $14.47 on August 6, below its peak but above the $13.36 publication price. The thesis largely played out, although the stock did not hold the target through the end of the window.
What happened during the window
On July 23, 2026, Valley National reported second-quarter net income of $170.9 million and total deposits of $54.1 billion, compared with $52.9 billion at March 31, 2026.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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