Track record · closed signal

Shoals Technologies Group Inc. (SHLS) — closed signal from May 8, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 6, 2026 — +2.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SHLS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$7.80 – $8.55Entry zone — fair-value band

$8.45Published — price the day we called it

$9.55Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$13.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$8.68Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 3 days.

At window close

+2.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+56%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$8.68

last close inside the window, ended August 6, 2026

Peak price

$13.18

peak on May 29, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 8, 2026

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$9.55

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$7.80 – $8.55

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$8.45

published May 8, 2026

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Shoals is seeing much faster sales growth after reporting a record backlog and higher guidance, driven by strong demand for solar and battery projects. That growth story is real, but profits are under pressure from tariffs, product mix and a factory move, and the company carries debt. Short-term buying looks best after a careful pullback.

Primary drivers

Large backlog makes near-term sales more predictable
Higher guidance confirms current demand strength
Exposure to solar and storage expands growth paths
Profit margins are under stress and risky for execution

How it played out

SHLS: target reached in 3 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis at 8.45, expecting 13% growth to 9.55. The thesis pointed to a large backlog, higher guidance, and demand from solar and storage projects. It also flagged margin pressure from tariffs, product mix, and a factory move, along with debt and execution risk.

The shares reached 9.55 in 3 days and later peaked at 13.18 on May 29, a 56% gain from publication. They then fell back and ended the window at 8.68 on August 6. The target was reached quickly. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On June 25, 2026, Shoals announced that the U.S. International Trade Commission had affirmed a patent infringement ruling against Voltage. On August 4, 2026, Shoals reported second-quarter backlog and awarded orders of $801.4 million, up 19.4% from the prior-year period.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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