Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from May 8, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 6, 2026 — +0.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$217.30 Published $254.24 Target $218.99 Window close $236.54 Peak
$208.00 – $220.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$217.30Published — price the day we called it
$254.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$218.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 52% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+0.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+8.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$218.99
last close inside the window, ended August 6, 2026
Peak price
$236.54
peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 8, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$254.24
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$208.00 – $220.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$217.30
published May 8, 2026
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia leads the hardware and software that powers big AI projects. Recent big sales to data centers and stronger networking demand make near-term profits more reliable. The company's cash and wide product lineup reduce downside risk, but recent fast price gains and softer market mood suggest waiting for calmer price action.

Primary drivers

  • Demand from data centers is the main source of growth
  • Stronger networking sales widen how the company makes money
  • A big cash pile helps ride out market swings
  • Large scale keeps Nvidia ahead in fast computing

How it played out

NVDA: the 17% thesis only partially played out

Lyra published the NVDA thesis on May 8 at $217.30, with expected growth of 17%. The thesis pointed to data center demand, stronger networking sales, cash reserves, and Nvidia's scale in accelerated computing. It also noted the recent price gains and softer market mood.

The price rose to a peak of $236.54 on May 14, a gain of 8.9%. It stayed below the $254.24 target and never reached it during the window. NVDA ended the period on August 6 at $218.99. The thesis partially played out, but the expected growth did not.

What happened during the window

On May 20, 2026, Nvidia reported first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year earlier. Data Center revenue was $75.2 billion, up 92%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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