Track record · closed signal

Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. (OR) — closed signal from May 8, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 6, 2026 — -15.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

OR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$37.05 – $38.64Entry zone — fair-value band

$38.13Published — price the day we called it

$45.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$40.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$32.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 31% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-15.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$32.15

last close inside the window, ended August 6, 2026

Peak price

$40.45

peak on May 11, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 8, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$45.67

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$37.05 – $38.64

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$38.13

published May 8, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Osisko reported record sales and stronger cash coming in, and it raised its dividend. Because it earns money by holding royalty and streaming rights rather than running mines, it has less exposure to mining costs. With the gold link, it can help in volatile markets. Near-term momentum is soft, but continued cash-flow strength could lift its valuation in 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

Record sales and higher operating cash flow this quarter
Dividend increase supports the shareholder-return story
Royalty model reduces exposure to running mine costs
Gold-linked cash flow provides balance in volatile markets

How it played out

OR: the 20% target was missed

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 20% growth from a price of $38.13. The thesis pointed to record sales, higher operating cash flow, a dividend increase, lower exposure to mine operating costs through the royalty model, and gold-linked cash flow. It also noted soft near-term momentum.

OR rose to a peak of $40.45 on May 11, a gain of 6.1%. It stayed below the $45.67 target throughout the window and ended at $32.15 on August 6. The thesis did not play out within the measured period.

What happened during the window

On July 8, the company reported preliminary second-quarter deliveries of 20,757 gold equivalent ounces and revenue of $97.8 million. On August 5, it reported that second-quarter revenue and operating cash flow each grew 62% year over year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All OR signals