Track record · closed signal

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) — closed signal from May 7, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 5, 2026 — +0.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ADC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$72.96 – $74.91Entry zone — fair-value band

$75.37Published — price the day we called it

$80.55Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$81.52Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$76.08Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 71 days.

At window close

+0.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+8.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$76.08

last close inside the window, ended August 5, 2026

Peak price

$81.52

peak on July 29, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 7, 2026

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$80.55

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$72.96 – $74.91

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$75.37

published May 7, 2026

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Agree Realty offers defensive exposure through leased retail properties and steady income. Insider buying is a positive sign, and recent price weakness points to nearer-term value. However, a large share-sale program could dilute existing owners and its sensitivity to interest rates limits how much it can gain in the next few months.

Primary drivers

Retail properties on long-term leases provide steady rent income
Reliable earnings and insiders buying shares show stability
Recent price weakness suggests a nearer-term buying opportunity
Large share-sale program and rate sensitivity could limit short-term gains

How it played out

ADC: target reached in 71 days

Lyra published ADC at $75.37 and expected 8% growth. The thesis pointed to steady rent from retail properties on long-term leases, reliable earnings, insider buying, and recent price weakness. It also noted that the share-sale program and interest-rate sensitivity could limit gains.

During the window, ADC reached the $80.55 target in 71 days. It peaked at $81.52 on July 29, for an 8.2% gain, then ended the window at $76.08. The published target was reached, so the thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On June 8, 2026, Agree Realty declared a monthly common dividend of $0.267 per share. On July 30, 2026, it reported second-quarter results and raised its 2026 investment guidance to $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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