Track record · closed signal

McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX) — closed signal from May 7, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 5, 2026 — -22.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MUX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$23.50 – $25.25Entry zone — fair-value band

$25.39Published — price the day we called it

$29.95Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$26.44Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$19.71Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 23% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-22.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$19.71

last close inside the window, ended August 5, 2026

Peak price

$26.44

peak on May 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 7, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$29.95

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$23.50 – $25.25

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$25.39

published May 7, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

McEwen looks like an aggressive rebound idea: the company swung to profit in Q1, beat earnings expectations, and reported progress on joint ventures and internally funded projects. Cash levels are supportive and exposure to metals could magnify gains, but the stock moved up sharply and short-term momentum is uncertain, raising near-term risk.

Primary drivers

Company swung to profit in Q1 and reported stronger-than-expected earnings
Progress on joint ventures and plans to expand across multiple mines
Healthy cash balance compared with debt, easing near-term funding risk
Recent sharp price rise and industry volatility increase near-term risk

How it played out

MUX: the 18% rebound thesis missed

Lyra published MUX as an aggressive short-term rebound idea, with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to a Q1 swing to profit, stronger-than-expected earnings, progress on joint ventures and mine expansion, and a healthy cash balance relative to debt. It also flagged the recent price rise and industry volatility as near-term risks.

The stock peaked at $26.44 on May 7, the first day of the window, for a 4.1% gain. It never reached the $29.95 target. By August 5, it had fallen to $19.71, below the $25.39 publication price. The published rebound thesis missed within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On May 21, 2026, McEwen reported receiving a $49.4 million dividend from the San José Mine. On August 5, 2026, the company reported Q2 net income of $9.6 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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