Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from May 7, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 5, 2026 — +5.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$198.00 – $210.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$208.04Published — price the day we called it

$243.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$219.22Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 81% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+5.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$219.22

last close inside the window, ended August 5, 2026

Peak price

$236.54

peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 7, 2026

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$243.41

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$198.00 – $210.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$208.04

published May 7, 2026

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is one of the main companies powering AI computing. Its sales and profits are growing fast, and it has high profit margins and lots of cash. Recent headlines about AI and data centers support demand. Still, recent price weakness and very high expectations mean it's safer to wait for a pullback or clear confirmation after earnings.

Primary drivers

Demand for AI data-center computing is the main growth driver
Strong profit margins and a healthy cash position support resilience
Industry news keeps confirming demand for advanced compute
Earnings timing and high valuation make near-term riskier

How it played out

NVDA: rose 13.7%, but missed the target

Lyra published NVDA at $208.04 with expected growth of 17%. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence data-center computing, strong profit margins, cash reserves, and industry reports of demand for advanced computing. It also cited earnings timing and a high valuation as near-term risks.

NVDA peaked at $236.54 on May 14, a gain of 13.7%, but never reached the $243.41 target. It ended the window at $219.22. The shares rose, but the published growth expectation did not play out in full. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On May 20, NVIDIA reported quarterly revenue of $81.6 billion and data-center revenue of $75.2 billion. On June 7, NVIDIA and SK hynix announced a multiyear partnership to develop and supply memory for artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals