Track record · closed signal

IAMGold Corporation (IAG) — closed signal from May 6, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 4, 2026 — -20.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

IAG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$17.75 – $18.90Entry zone — fair-value band

$18.61Published — price the day we called it

$22.33Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$19.59Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$14.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 26% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-20.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$14.80

last close inside the window, ended August 4, 2026

Peak price

$19.59

peak on May 11, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 6, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$22.33

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$17.75 – $18.90

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$18.61

published May 6, 2026

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The company reported strong quarterly sales and cash flow and benefits from rising gold prices, which supports near-term performance. However, recent trading patterns are weak, there are concerns about insider transactions, and the stock moves strongly with commodity swings, making the short-term setup aggressive.

Primary drivers

Quarterly results showed stronger operations and cash flow
Higher gold prices help the company generate cash
Progress on projects and governance improves credibility
Recent heavy selling makes a bounce possible if conditions improve

How it played out

IAG: the 20% thesis missed its target

Lyra published IAG at $18.61 with an expected gain of 20% and a target of $22.33. The thesis pointed to stronger quarterly operations and cash flow, higher gold prices, project and governance progress, and the chance of a bounce after heavy selling. It also noted weak trading patterns, insider transaction concerns, and exposure to commodity swings.

The price rose to a peak of $19.59 on May 11, a gain of 5.2%. It never reached the target. By August 4, it had fallen to $14.80, below the publication price and the entry zone. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On June 1, 2026, IAMGold announced an updated mineral resource estimate that combined the Côté and Gosselin zones. On June 17, 2026, it announced an increase and extension of its revolving credit facility.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All IAG signals