Track record · closed signal

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from May 6, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 4, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

HMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$17.23 Published $20.16 Target $16.88 Window close $18.64 Peak
$16.30 – $17.35Entry zone — fair-value band
$17.23Published — price the day we called it
$20.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$18.64Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$16.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$18.64
peak on May 29, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+8.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$16.88
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
May 6, 2026 – August 4, 2026

The thesis — published May 6, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$20.16
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$16.30 – $17.35
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$17.23
published May 6, 2026
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Harmony Gold is an affordable way to hold gold through a producer that is making money and getting positive attention from a Morgan Stanley upgrade and recent reports of steady earnings. The share price has risen above the recent average and near-term momentum looks weak, so the near-term setup is constructive but not a clear, low-risk buy.

Primary drivers

  • Upgrade raises attention from big investors and funds
  • Low share price gives some protection if markets wobble
  • Gold holdings can add stability when stocks wobble
  • Earnings progress shows operations are improving

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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