Track record · closed signal

Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) — closed signal from July 30, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 28, 2025 — +71.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BTU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$15.20 – $15.69Entry zone — fair-value band

$15.97Published — price the day we called it

$19.04Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$35.90Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$27.40Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 47 days.

At window close

+71.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+124.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$27.40

last close inside the window, ended October 28, 2025

Peak price

$35.90

peak on October 14, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 30, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$19.04

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$15.20 – $15.69

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$15.97

published July 30, 2025

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Peabody shares jumped 16 percent after China signaled it would cut coal output and new US safety rules loomed, but then dropped 7 percent, creating a possible second chance to enter. Investor enthusiasm is almost maxed and buying now outweighs selling, yet the company’s core numbers lag and coal prices swing wildly. The August meeting, where a flexible dividend could return, is the big milestone. We will watch if the price can hold $15.40-$15.90 over the next three months.

Primary drivers

China cutting mine output means less coal on the world market, pushing prices up.
If the company revives its special dividend in August, income seekers may pile in.
Recent trading shows more buyers than sellers, but price swings remain large.
Very high investor optimism suggests funds may buy on dips near the target zone.

How it played out

BTU: target reached in 47 days

Lyra published BTU on 2025-07-30 at $15.97, with expected growth of 20 percent. The thesis pointed to China cutting mine output, a possible flexible dividend return in August, more buyers than sellers in recent trading, and very high investor optimism around dips near $15.40-$15.90. It also noted a 16 percent jump followed by a 7 percent drop.

Inside the 2025-07-30 to 2025-10-28 window, BTU reached the $19.04 target in 47 days. It peaked at $35.90 on 2025-10-14, a 124.7 percent gain, and ended at $27.40. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-19, Peabody called off its agreement to buy Anglo American's Australian steelmaking coal assets. Anglo American said it would seek damages through arbitration. On 2025-08-20, another report said Anglo American planned legal action after Peabody withdrew from the deal.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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