Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) — closed signal from July 30, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 28, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 47 days.
The thesis — published July 30, 2025
Peabody shares jumped 16 percent after China signaled it would cut coal output and new US safety rules loomed, but then dropped 7 percent, creating a possible second chance to enter. Investor enthusiasm is almost maxed and buying now outweighs selling, yet the company’s core numbers lag and coal prices swing wildly. The August meeting, where a flexible dividend could return, is the big milestone. We will watch if the price can hold $15.40-$15.90 over the next three months.
Primary drivers
- China cutting mine output means less coal on the world market, pushing prices up.
- If the company revives its special dividend in August, income seekers may pile in.
- Recent trading shows more buyers than sellers, but price swings remain large.
- Very high investor optimism suggests funds may buy on dips near the target zone.
How it played out
BTU: target reached in 47 days
Lyra published BTU on 2025-07-30 at $15.97, with expected growth of 20 percent. The thesis pointed to China cutting mine output, a possible flexible dividend return in August, more buyers than sellers in recent trading, and very high investor optimism around dips near $15.40-$15.90. It also noted a 16 percent jump followed by a 7 percent drop.
Inside the 2025-07-30 to 2025-10-28 window, BTU reached the $19.04 target in 47 days. It peaked at $35.90 on 2025-10-14, a 124.7 percent gain, and ended at $27.40. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-19, Peabody called off its agreement to buy Anglo American's Australian steelmaking coal assets. Anglo American said it would seek damages through arbitration. On 2025-08-20, another report said Anglo American planned legal action after Peabody withdrew from the deal.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.