Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) — closed signal from May 6, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 4, 2026 — -7.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$74.00 – $78.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$77.66Published — price the day we called it

$91.64Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$80.82Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$71.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 23% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-7.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$71.99

last close inside the window, ended August 4, 2026

Peak price

$80.82

peak on May 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 6, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$91.64

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$74.00 – $78.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$77.66

published May 6, 2026

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber shows a near-term setup tied to stronger consumer spending and steady demand for rides and deliveries. Profitability gains and a cheaper valuation versus many growth peers make the stock more appealing. Still, weak technical signals, insider selling, and uneven past earnings keep overall conviction below the highest level.

Primary drivers

Steady consumer spending keeps demand for rides and food delivery strong
Recent share gains reflect markets responding to improving demand trends
Better profitability makes the company attractive to a wider group of investors
Large platform scale helps spread costs and improve long-term margins

How it played out

UBER: the 18% growth thesis missed

On May 6, Lyra published a short-term thesis at $77.66, with an expected gain of 18% and a $91.64 target. The thesis pointed to steady demand for rides and deliveries, stronger consumer spending, better profitability, a cheaper valuation than many growth peers, and the benefits of Uber's scale.

The price peaked at $80.82 on May 7, a gain of 4.1%. It never reached the target. By August 4, it had fallen to $71.99, below the publication price. The thesis did not play out within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On May 6, Uber reported first-quarter trips growth of 20% and operating income of $1.9 billion. On July 16, Uber announced an offer to acquire Delivery Hero for €41.50 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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