Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from May 6, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 4, 2026 — +4.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$202.06 Published $234.39 Target $211.94 Window close $236.54 Peak
$195.00 – $204.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$202.06Published — price the day we called it
$234.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$211.94Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 8 days.

At window close
+4.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+17.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$211.94
last close inside the window, ended August 4, 2026
Peak price
$236.54
peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
8

The thesis — published May 6, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$234.39
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$195.00 – $204.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$202.06
published May 6, 2026
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is a top AI infrastructure company with very strong profits and a solid balance sheet. A new deal with Corning helps its supply and infrastructure options. Short-term price action has cooled and many competitors are crowded into the same theme, so while a rebound is plausible in the next 0-3 months, high valuation means a cautious stance.

Primary drivers

  • AI demand fuels data-center and chip growth
  • Corning deal improves supply-chain and infrastructure choices
  • Very strong profit margins and financial health
  • Short-term weakness could set up a rebound opportunity

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 8 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for NVDA at $202.06, with expected growth of 16% over 0-3 months. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, strong profit margins and financial health, the Corning deal, and recent price weakness as a possible setup for a rebound.

The price reached a peak of $236.54 on May 14, above the $234.39 target. It reached the target in 8 days and posted a peak gain of 17.1%. By August 4, it had fallen to $211.94. The published thesis played out within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On May 20, 2026, NVIDIA reported first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year earlier, and Data Center revenue of $75.2 billion, up 92%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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