Track record · closed signal

Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA ADR (BVN) — closed signal from May 6, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 4, 2026 — -5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BVN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$33.97 Published $39.07 Target $32.26 Window close $38.65 Peak
$32.50 – $34.25Entry zone — fair-value band
$33.97Published — price the day we called it
$39.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.65Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$32.26Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 92% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+13.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$32.26
last close inside the window, ended August 4, 2026
Peak price
$38.65
peak on May 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 6, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$39.07
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$32.50 – $34.25
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$33.97
published May 6, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Buenaventura is included as a cleaner precious-metals pick for the next few months because its latest quarterly report showed record sales, solid profits, and a clear rise in gold output. The stock looks less speculative thanks to low valuation and good profit margins, but weak trading, Peru-related risks, and sensitivity to metal prices mean confidence is positive but cautious.

Primary drivers

  • Latest quarter delivered record sales and higher gold output, boosting earnings clarity
  • Cheap valuation and strong profit margins lower downside risk compared to peers
  • Exposure to precious metals can help balance more aggressive market leaders
  • Operations appear to be improving more than many other mining companies

How it played out

BVN: rose 13.8% but missed the target

Lyra published the BVN thesis on May 6, 2026, at $33.97. It expected 15% growth and a $39.07 target. The thesis pointed to record sales, higher gold output, solid profits, a low valuation, and strong profit margins. It also noted weak trading, Peru-related risks, and sensitivity to metal prices.

BVN rose to $38.65 on May 13, a peak gain of 13.8%. That was below the $39.07 target, which it never reached during the window. The stock ended at $32.26 on August 4. The thesis partially played out, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, Buenaventura announced its second-quarter production and sales volumes by metal.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All BVN signals