Track record · closed signal

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from May 5, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 3, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

HMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$15.71 Published $18.69 Target $16.47 Window close $18.64 Peak
$14.80 – $15.90Entry zone — fair-value band
$15.71Published — price the day we called it
$18.69Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$18.64Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$16.47Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$18.64
peak on May 29, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+18.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$16.47
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
May 5, 2026 – August 3, 2026

The thesis — published May 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+19%
over the measurement window
Target price
$18.69
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$14.80 – $15.90
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$15.71
published May 5, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Harmony offers cheaper exposure to gold, helped by an upgrade from Morgan Stanley and signs margins might improve. The stock fell recently, so it looks oversold. Because earnings estimates are incomplete and production and gold-price swings matter a lot, the near-term view is cautious and put on Watch rather than stronger.

Primary drivers

  • Gold exposure can protect if geopolitical tension rises
  • Upgrade from Morgan Stanley gives news-based support
  • Valuation looks low versus possible operational gains
  • Recent pullback creates a clearer tactical entry opportunity

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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