Track record · closed signal

Frontline Ltd (FRO) — closed signal from May 5, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 3, 2026 — +9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

FRO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$36.61 Published $38.58 Target $39.91 Window close $43.10 Peak
$33.52 – $35.35Entry zone — fair-value band
$36.61Published — price the day we called it
$38.58Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$43.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$39.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 44 days.

At window close
+9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+17.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$39.91
last close inside the window, ended August 3, 2026
Peak price
$43.10
peak on June 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
44

The thesis — published May 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$38.58
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$33.52 – $35.35
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$36.61
published May 5, 2026
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Frontline is a short-term, event-driven idea tied to tensions in the Middle East that can push tanker demand and freight prices higher. Shipping funds and investors are showing renewed interest, which can help rates. Offsets include sizable debt, inconsistent earnings, and limited upside, so the 0-3 month view is cautious and watchful.

Primary drivers

  • Regional tensions can raise demand for tanker ships
  • Investor interest in shipping can lift stock demand
  • Volatile energy markets can keep freight need high
  • Debt levels and uneven profits weaken conviction

How it played out

FRO: target reached in 44 days

Lyra published FRO as a cautious short-term idea with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to regional tensions, tanker demand, volatile energy markets, and renewed investor interest in shipping. It also flagged debt and uneven profits as limits on conviction.

The shares reached the 38.58 target in 44 days. They later peaked at 43.10 on June 24, a 17.7% gain, and ended the window at 39.91. The peak cleared the target and the closing price remained above it. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On May 22, 2026, Frontline reported first-quarter profit of $559.1 million and declared a cash dividend of $1.55 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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