Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from May 5, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 3, 2026 — +8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.81 – $13.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.43Published — price the day we called it

$15.06Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$15.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$14.50Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 72 days.

At window close

+8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$14.50

last close inside the window, ended August 3, 2026

Peak price

$15.20

peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 5, 2026

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$15.06

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.81 – $13.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.43

published May 5, 2026

Confidence

81%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National looks stronger than many regional banks because recent results show better profit, rising deposits and steady core revenue. Q1 details point to higher net income, deposit gains and investment in technology while the valuation still looks fair. The stock has fallen more than its peers but is starting to stabilize, and insider buying provides extra support. Bank-sector risks remain.

Primary drivers

Steady profit improvements and better margins
Q1 showed clear deposit increases
Insiders buying shares, stronger than peers
Valuation allows room for a cautious rebound

How it played out

VLY: target reached in 72 days

Lyra published a 13% growth thesis for VLY. It pointed to improving profit and margins, higher deposits, insider share purchases, and a valuation that left room for a cautious rebound. The thesis also noted bank-sector risks.

The stock reached the $15.06 target in 72 days. It peaked at $15.20 on July 16, a 13.2% gain, then ended the window at $14.50. The expected move played out within the measurement window, although the closing price was below both the peak and target.

What happened during the window

On May 28, Valley Bank announced two appointments to its consumer banking leadership team. On July 23, Valley National Bancorp reported second-quarter net income of $170.9 million and total deposits of $54.1 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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