Track record · closed signal

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from May 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

HMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$15.87 Published $18.72 Target $15.75 Window close $18.64 Peak
$15.30 – $16.10Entry zone — fair-value band
$15.87Published — price the day we called it
$18.72Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$18.64Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$15.75Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$18.64
peak on May 29, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+17.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$15.75
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
May 4, 2026 – August 2, 2026

The thesis — published May 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$18.72
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$15.30 – $16.10
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$15.87
published May 4, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Harmony looks attractive because its shares trade cheaply relative to expectations and recent operations are improving. A big broker upgrade and talk of sustained profit growth support the case for holding gold exposure. The stock is near an oversold level but hasn't shown a clear turn yet. Gold prices, currency swings and South African operating risks could still make the price move a lot.

Primary drivers

  • Broker upgrade lifted near-term market mood
  • Gold exposure offers diversification when markets wobble
  • Stronger earnings trend makes valuation more appealing
  • Commodity and local operating risks limit conviction

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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