Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from May 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.35 Published $14.84 Target $14.29 Window close $15.20 Peak
$12.81 – $13.35Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.35Published — price the day we called it
$14.84Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$15.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.29Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 64 days.

Peak price
$15.20
peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+13.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$14.29
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
64
Window
May 4, 2026 – August 2, 2026

The thesis — published May 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.84
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.81 – $13.35
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.35
published May 4, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National shows clear signs of operational improvement: sales and other revenue drivers improved in the latest quarter, interest income is stronger, margins widened and deposits grew. Insider buying signals management confidence. Valuation looks fair, but loan quality, higher borrowing costs and exposure to office and commercial property are the main risks.

Primary drivers

  • Quarterly results show the bank is executing better
  • Stronger interest income helps make earnings steadier
  • Deposit growth plus insider buying adds confidence
  • Main risks are loan quality and funding pressure in the region

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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