Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from May 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 2, 2026 — +7.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.81 – $13.35Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.35Published — price the day we called it

$14.84Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$15.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$14.29Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 64 days.

At window close

+7.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$14.29

last close inside the window, ended August 2, 2026

Peak price

$15.20

peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 4, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.84

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.81 – $13.35

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.35

published May 4, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National shows clear signs of operational improvement: sales and other revenue drivers improved in the latest quarter, interest income is stronger, margins widened and deposits grew. Insider buying signals management confidence. Valuation looks fair, but loan quality, higher borrowing costs and exposure to office and commercial property are the main risks.

Primary drivers

Quarterly results show the bank is executing better
Stronger interest income helps make earnings steadier
Deposit growth plus insider buying adds confidence
Main risks are loan quality and funding pressure in the region

How it played out

VLY: target reached in 64 days

On May 4, Lyra published a 12% growth thesis from $13.35. The thesis pointed to better quarterly execution, stronger interest income, wider margins, deposit growth and insider buying. It also identified loan quality, borrowing costs and regional property exposure as the main risks.

During the window, VLY reached the $14.84 target in 64 days. It later peaked at $15.20 on July 16, a 13.9% gain. The stock ended the window at $14.29, below both the target and peak. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On May 28, Valley announced two appointments to its consumer banking leadership team. On July 23, the company reported second-quarter net income of $170.9 million and diluted earnings of $0.29 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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