Track record · closed signal

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) — closed signal from May 4, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 2, 2026 — +3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ADC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$72.47 – $75.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$75.56Published — price the day we called it

$80.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$81.52Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$77.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 99% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$77.80

last close inside the window, ended August 2, 2026

Peak price

$81.52

peak on July 29, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 4, 2026

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$80.76

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$72.47 – $75.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$75.56

published May 4, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Agree Realty behaves like a defensive property company after a pullback tied to higher interest rates. A recent program to sell shares creates a clear risk of ownership dilution, but the company still collects rent from stable national and regional tenants and offers steady income. Insider buying is a small positive. Overall, the setup suggests a modest tactical upside over the next 0-3 months, constrained by dilution risk and sensitivity to interest rates.

Primary drivers

Owned retail properties provide steady rental income and low volatility
Insider buying signals confidence from people connected to the company
Plan to sell shares raises the chance of lower value per share
Recent oversold move makes a short-term bounce more likely

How it played out

ADC: peak cleared the target, then ended at $77.80

Lyra published ADC at $75.56 with an expected gain of 8% over 0 to 3 months. The thesis pointed to steady rental income, insider buying and an oversold move as support for a bounce. It also cited share dilution and sensitivity to interest rates as risks.

ADC peaked at $81.52 on July 29, above the $80.76 target. The recorded peak gain was 7.9%, although no target-hit day was identified. The stock ended the window at $77.80. The thesis largely played out, but the gain did not hold through the end.

What happened during the window

On June 8, Agree Realty declared a monthly common dividend of $0.267 per share. On July 30, the company reported second-quarter results, including $502 million of investment activity, and raised its 2026 investment guidance to $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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