Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from May 3, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$963.33 Published $1,117.46 Target $1,148.84 Window close $1,249.45 Peak
$910.00 – $960.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$963.33Published — price the day we called it
$1,117.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,249.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,148.84Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 25 days.

Peak price
$1,249.45
peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+29.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,148.84
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
25
Window
May 3, 2026 – August 1, 2026

The thesis — published May 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,117.46
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$910.00 – $960.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$963.33
published May 3, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly looks like a growth company after another earnings beat, stronger demand for its obesity drug, and higher revenue guidance. Leadership in diabetes and obesity plus positive news on an oral obesity trial are pushing estimates higher. Because the stock jumped on the news and is extended, a period of consolidation would lower the chance of profit-taking before a clearer three-month advance.

Primary drivers

  • Growing sales for obesity and diabetes products keep estimates moving up
  • Earnings beat and raised guidance strengthen confidence in growth
  • Positive results boost the outlook for an oral obesity medicine
  • High valuation and recent big move make consolidation prudent

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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