Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) — closed signal from July 3, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 1, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 74 days.
The thesis — published July 3, 2025
A new U.S. energy law now rewards companies that turn coal into hydrogen, so demand for Peabody’s coal could grow. Even after recent heavy buying, the shares are priced at only a little more than two times next year’s expected profits and throw off a large 25 percent cash yield. About 12 percent of the stock is sold short, so any good news could force those traders to buy back quickly, pushing the price toward 20 dollars, the level last seen in August 2023. A brief dip back toward the mid-14s would give new investors a clearer, lower-risk entry point.
Primary drivers
- New July 2 tax credit makes coal useful for making hydrogen, raising future orders.
- Shares look cheap compared with profits and assets, so price could catch up.
- Recent average price is rising and many up days hint a new upward trend.
- Many are betting against the stock, but company buybacks can push it near 20.
How it played out
BTU: target reached in 74 days
On July 3, Lyra published a short-term BTU thesis from $14.58 with 35 percent expected growth and a $19.56 target. The thesis pointed to a new July 2 tax credit tied to coal use in hydrogen, cheap valuation, rising recent price action, 12 percent short interest, buybacks, and a possible move toward 20 dollars.
Inside the window, BTU reached the target in 74 days. The stock peaked at $28.45 on October 1, with a 95.1 percent peak gain, and ended at $28.21. The thesis played out. The move went well beyond the published target.
What happened during the window
On August 19, 2025, Peabody called off its $3.78 billion agreement to buy Anglo American's Australian steelmaking coal assets. Anglo American disputed Peabody's claim and said it would seek arbitration.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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